Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Sacramento Association of Realtors Upcoming Events
Here are some noteworthy events coming up in September that you might be interested in:SAR Volunteer Opportunity: Rebuilding TogetherDate: Saturday, October 3rdTime: All DayLocation: TBASAR has been organizing a team of members to help rehab the home of a needy Sacramento citizen. This team gets together twice a year to paint, construct, and even clean homes. If you are interested please contact Tony @ 437-1205 and for more details you can sign up at www.rebuildingtogethersacramento.orgSAR 2009 Fall Conference & ExpoDate: Friday, September 18thTime: 8:00-9:00am Early-bird session9:00am-4:00pm Conference and ExpoLocation: Radisson Hotel SacramentoCost: $25 (SAR and MLS Members)$30 (Non-Members)There will be exciting speakers, fabulous prizes and an extensive trade show not to mention a delicious lunch will be served. Speakers include:-Right Tools Right Now: Matthew Ferrara-It's Easy Being Green: Jim Casey-Recharge Your Batteries: Jay GrantThe Housing Affordability Update: "Show Me the Money"Date: Wednesday, October 28thTime: 9:00am - 12:00pmLocation: SAR Mack Powell AuditoriumCost: $10 ($15 if paid after 10/23)Topics covered will include the EEM, 203K, MCC and many more. This will be an amazing opportunity for information because the following organizations will be featured FHA, CalPERS, and CalHFA.Young Professionals Council/Public Issues ForumDate: Thursday, September 17thTime: 9:00am - 10:00amLocation: SAR Mack Powell AuditoriumThis year the Forum has been moved to accommodate the 2009 Fall Conference and will be held jointly with the YPC meeting. There will be updates given on the Sacramento region's water issues by John Woodling, Executive Director of the Regional Water Authority.WCR LuncheonDate: Thursday, September 17thTime: 11:00am - 2:00pmLocation: SAR Mack Powell AuditoriumThe Women's Council of REALTORS is holding their monthly luncheon on Thursday following the YPC/Public Issues Forum. A one hour Crime Prevention Seminar will be given by Crime Stop USA. This seminar has been seen by over 30,000 agents. Laugh yourself safe!Source Sacramento Association of Realtors
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
Mortgage fraud bills sent to Schwarzenegger
Mortgage fraud bills sent to Schwarzenegger
As financial carnage from the housing crash continues across California, state lawmakers have sent several bills that crack down on mortgage fraud to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's desk.In recent days, the Assembly and Senate have jointly passed bills to ban loan modification companies from asking for upfront fees and make mortgage brokers put their customers' financial needs ahead of their own commissions.They've also limited the size of pre-payment penalties and added California to the roster of states that allow prosecutors to file specific felony charges for those accused of mortgage fraud."No one right now is doing these risky loans," said Assemblyman Ted Lieu, D-Torrance. "But five or 10 years from now people (will) forget, and if you don't have these controls in place, the same thing happens again."Lieu carried one of the Legislature's most sweeping mortgage reform bills this year, Assembly Bill 260, which was sent to the governor this week. It bans so-called subprime "negative amortization" loans where the amount owed grows even as the borrower makes payments.It also prevents mortgage brokers from receiving thousands of dollars in special fees for originating subprime loans and those with pre-payment penalties. The bill also limits the size of pre-payment penalties for borrowers who pay off their loans early.Lastly, it requires that mortgage brokers have a fiduciary duty to borrowers – that is, they must place the "economic interest of the borrower ahead of the broker's own economic interest" when making loans.That provision is especially opposed by the California Association of Mortgage Brokers. Fred Arnold, a Santa Clarita-area broker and the group's past president, said the bill's definition of fiduciary duty is vague and an invitation to "frivolous lawsuits.""It's not necessary. We already have a fiduciary duty under the Department of Real Estate," said Arnold.Last year, the governor vetoed a similar broad-based bill by Lieu to rein in mortgage industry practices. But Lieu said he worked with the Governor's Office on this year's version, noting, "We hope we've hit the sweet spot for a compromise."The bills land on Schwarzenegger's desk as California continues wrestling with more than 410,000 foreclosures since the start of 2007, the aftermath of unfettered lending practices earlier this decade.During the housing boom, unscrupulous mortgage brokers could earn fees of $20,000 or more for making risky subprime adjustable-rate loans, often to unsuspecting borrowers.Among groups backing changes in mortgage practices is the California District Attorneys Association, which is pushing for new felony penalties for mortgage fraud. The group sponsored a bill now before the governor, Senate Bill 239, by Sen. Fran Pavley, D- Agoura Hills. It would create a specific category of felony mortgage fraud, which the DA's group calls "one of the linchpins in the demise of the California real estate market and the related crises in the financial sectors."The group says Sacramento ranks seventh among U.S. metropolitan areas in reporting mortgage fraud complaints to the FBI.Finally, Schwarzenegger faces a choice of two bills that would bar loan modification companies from asking struggling borrowers to pay upfront fees.Both bills banning upfront loan modification fees – Assembly Bill 764 by Assemblyman Pedro Nava, D-Santa Barbara, and Senate Bill 94 by Sen. Ron Calderon, D-Montebello – passed the Legislature earlier this week. The governor has 30 days from a bill's passage to sign it, veto it or let it become law without his signature.
As financial carnage from the housing crash continues across California, state lawmakers have sent several bills that crack down on mortgage fraud to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's desk.In recent days, the Assembly and Senate have jointly passed bills to ban loan modification companies from asking for upfront fees and make mortgage brokers put their customers' financial needs ahead of their own commissions.They've also limited the size of pre-payment penalties and added California to the roster of states that allow prosecutors to file specific felony charges for those accused of mortgage fraud."No one right now is doing these risky loans," said Assemblyman Ted Lieu, D-Torrance. "But five or 10 years from now people (will) forget, and if you don't have these controls in place, the same thing happens again."Lieu carried one of the Legislature's most sweeping mortgage reform bills this year, Assembly Bill 260, which was sent to the governor this week. It bans so-called subprime "negative amortization" loans where the amount owed grows even as the borrower makes payments.It also prevents mortgage brokers from receiving thousands of dollars in special fees for originating subprime loans and those with pre-payment penalties. The bill also limits the size of pre-payment penalties for borrowers who pay off their loans early.Lastly, it requires that mortgage brokers have a fiduciary duty to borrowers – that is, they must place the "economic interest of the borrower ahead of the broker's own economic interest" when making loans.That provision is especially opposed by the California Association of Mortgage Brokers. Fred Arnold, a Santa Clarita-area broker and the group's past president, said the bill's definition of fiduciary duty is vague and an invitation to "frivolous lawsuits.""It's not necessary. We already have a fiduciary duty under the Department of Real Estate," said Arnold.Last year, the governor vetoed a similar broad-based bill by Lieu to rein in mortgage industry practices. But Lieu said he worked with the Governor's Office on this year's version, noting, "We hope we've hit the sweet spot for a compromise."The bills land on Schwarzenegger's desk as California continues wrestling with more than 410,000 foreclosures since the start of 2007, the aftermath of unfettered lending practices earlier this decade.During the housing boom, unscrupulous mortgage brokers could earn fees of $20,000 or more for making risky subprime adjustable-rate loans, often to unsuspecting borrowers.Among groups backing changes in mortgage practices is the California District Attorneys Association, which is pushing for new felony penalties for mortgage fraud. The group sponsored a bill now before the governor, Senate Bill 239, by Sen. Fran Pavley, D- Agoura Hills. It would create a specific category of felony mortgage fraud, which the DA's group calls "one of the linchpins in the demise of the California real estate market and the related crises in the financial sectors."The group says Sacramento ranks seventh among U.S. metropolitan areas in reporting mortgage fraud complaints to the FBI.Finally, Schwarzenegger faces a choice of two bills that would bar loan modification companies from asking struggling borrowers to pay upfront fees.Both bills banning upfront loan modification fees – Assembly Bill 764 by Assemblyman Pedro Nava, D-Santa Barbara, and Senate Bill 94 by Sen. Ron Calderon, D-Montebello – passed the Legislature earlier this week. The governor has 30 days from a bill's passage to sign it, veto it or let it become law without his signature.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Mortgage-relief program helps relatively few troubled homeowners
Mortgage-relief program helps relatively few troubled homeowners
WASHINGTON – Major mortgage service companies boosted the number of trial modifications they offered to distressed homeowners in August, the government reported Wednesday, but the workouts still cover only a small fraction of the delinquent loans that are eligible for help.The Treasury Department released its second monthly report on loan modifications under the Obama administration's Making Home Affordable Program. It said that servicers had started 360,165 trial modifications through August, up by 124,918 from the modifications reported through July. The number of offers for trial modifications rose by 164,812, to 571,354 through August.The total number of trial modifications started represented 12 percent of all loans that are 60 days late on payments and considered eligible for the Obama administration's program. That's up from 9 percent through the end of July. "We think all the servicers could do more than they are doing now," Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr told the housing subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.The program is on track to meet its target of 500,000 trial modifications by November, Barr said. That number, however, is a small percentage of the more than 6 million potential foreclosures over the next three years that many analysts forecast.Mortgage servicers, many of them large banks like Wells Fargo and Bank of America, are essentially middlemen that collect mortgage payments on behalf of investors who own securities backed by pools of mortgages. Although borrowers negotiate with servicers as if they were the lenders, the servicers represent the interests of investors, not homeowners.From 2005 to 2008, servicers modified just 3 percent of all delinquent loans, according to documents reviewed by the House panel.That low number led the Obama administration to create the servicer performance report, dubbed "Name and Shame," in a bid to pressure investors and servicers to do more. Forty-seven servicers now participate in the administration's program, up from 38 in July.Wells Fargo and Bank of America improved on their July numbers but are still modifying a low percentage of eligible loans under the government program. Bank of America increased from 4 percent of eligible loans to 7 percent; Wells Fargo improved from 6 percent to 11 percent.CitiMortgage, part of troubled Citibank, boosted its trial modification numbers to 23 percent of eligible loans in August from 15 percent in July. JPMorgan Chase, thought to be the nation's healthiest large bank, improved to 25 percent of eligible loans in August from 20 percent a month earlier.The government's trial modification program seeks, through financial incentives to servicers and the investors they represent, to get borrowers into loans whose monthly payments are equivalent to 31 percent of their before-tax incomes.Industry representatives said in testimony that their modification numbers were much higher than the report indicated, but there are no reliable breakdowns of individual servicer numbers to distinguish between, say, allowing a borrower to skip a payment vs. modifying an adjustable-rate loan into a low-cost fixed-rate mortgage."There may be other things going on out there, but to comply with our program rules and to count as a real modification you've got to get people down to an affordable (payment) level," Barr told McClatchy.The administration will ratchet up pressure on servicers, he said, requiring new data on why loans weren't modified."We are requiring next month the implementation of denial codes by each servicer, and at that point we will be able to have good empirical data on reasons for denial," Barr said.Representatives of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo acknowledged in testimony that they fold legal fees and other foreclosure-processing costs into reworked loans, upping the balance that borrowers owe.Only Wells Fargo said it had a special program to help borrowers with strong payment histories should they lose their jobs.Bank of America's executive in charge of credit loss mitigation, Jack Schakett, acknowledged to the panel something long suspected but rarely spoken about publicly. Distressed borrowers who have equity built up in their homes, he said, are more likely to get foreclosed on, because there's a greater likelihood that servicers and investors who hold pools of mortgages will profit from the sales of the homes."The more equity that is in the house, the more the market will actually walk away with money, the less likely you will actually modify the loan," Schakett confirmed in an interview after the hearing.
WASHINGTON – Major mortgage service companies boosted the number of trial modifications they offered to distressed homeowners in August, the government reported Wednesday, but the workouts still cover only a small fraction of the delinquent loans that are eligible for help.The Treasury Department released its second monthly report on loan modifications under the Obama administration's Making Home Affordable Program. It said that servicers had started 360,165 trial modifications through August, up by 124,918 from the modifications reported through July. The number of offers for trial modifications rose by 164,812, to 571,354 through August.The total number of trial modifications started represented 12 percent of all loans that are 60 days late on payments and considered eligible for the Obama administration's program. That's up from 9 percent through the end of July. "We think all the servicers could do more than they are doing now," Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr told the housing subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.The program is on track to meet its target of 500,000 trial modifications by November, Barr said. That number, however, is a small percentage of the more than 6 million potential foreclosures over the next three years that many analysts forecast.Mortgage servicers, many of them large banks like Wells Fargo and Bank of America, are essentially middlemen that collect mortgage payments on behalf of investors who own securities backed by pools of mortgages. Although borrowers negotiate with servicers as if they were the lenders, the servicers represent the interests of investors, not homeowners.From 2005 to 2008, servicers modified just 3 percent of all delinquent loans, according to documents reviewed by the House panel.That low number led the Obama administration to create the servicer performance report, dubbed "Name and Shame," in a bid to pressure investors and servicers to do more. Forty-seven servicers now participate in the administration's program, up from 38 in July.Wells Fargo and Bank of America improved on their July numbers but are still modifying a low percentage of eligible loans under the government program. Bank of America increased from 4 percent of eligible loans to 7 percent; Wells Fargo improved from 6 percent to 11 percent.CitiMortgage, part of troubled Citibank, boosted its trial modification numbers to 23 percent of eligible loans in August from 15 percent in July. JPMorgan Chase, thought to be the nation's healthiest large bank, improved to 25 percent of eligible loans in August from 20 percent a month earlier.The government's trial modification program seeks, through financial incentives to servicers and the investors they represent, to get borrowers into loans whose monthly payments are equivalent to 31 percent of their before-tax incomes.Industry representatives said in testimony that their modification numbers were much higher than the report indicated, but there are no reliable breakdowns of individual servicer numbers to distinguish between, say, allowing a borrower to skip a payment vs. modifying an adjustable-rate loan into a low-cost fixed-rate mortgage."There may be other things going on out there, but to comply with our program rules and to count as a real modification you've got to get people down to an affordable (payment) level," Barr told McClatchy.The administration will ratchet up pressure on servicers, he said, requiring new data on why loans weren't modified."We are requiring next month the implementation of denial codes by each servicer, and at that point we will be able to have good empirical data on reasons for denial," Barr said.Representatives of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo acknowledged in testimony that they fold legal fees and other foreclosure-processing costs into reworked loans, upping the balance that borrowers owe.Only Wells Fargo said it had a special program to help borrowers with strong payment histories should they lose their jobs.Bank of America's executive in charge of credit loss mitigation, Jack Schakett, acknowledged to the panel something long suspected but rarely spoken about publicly. Distressed borrowers who have equity built up in their homes, he said, are more likely to get foreclosed on, because there's a greater likelihood that servicers and investors who hold pools of mortgages will profit from the sales of the homes."The more equity that is in the house, the more the market will actually walk away with money, the less likely you will actually modify the loan," Schakett confirmed in an interview after the hearing.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Backlash against banks growing over mortgage modification
Backlash against banks growing over mortgage modifications
James Seeley, a machine shop supervisor at the University of California, Davis, just wants a modified mortgage that he and his wife, Sandi, can better afford.
It's a common quest in this economy. Seeley's wages are being cut. His house in Natomas has lost almost half its value. And he owes more than it's worth, even with a $125,000 down payment in 2006.
"We want to get payments down to 31 percent of our income," said Seeley.
In Curtis Park, Hilary Egan is trying to do the same. Her contractor husband has seen a considerable drop in business. She wants a modification before their interest-only loan resets next year to higher payments.
The Seeleys and Egans, both current with their mortgages, have something else in common: Both their modification requests were denied.
Their rejections have aligned them with a broad and growing swath of public opinion: sore that a U.S. banking industry that has received billions of dollars in taxpayer support in the past year hasn't reciprocated on their behalf.
"I don't know a single person who has benefited from the money that was given to lenders," said Egan.
Added Seeley, "The taxpayers are the largest investor in these companies, so I would think they would be taking care of us first."
Banks and financial institutions aren't usually adored even in best of times. But after absorbing much blame for exuberant lending that created the housing bubble, they are increasingly absorbing a backlash for their response to the subsequent foreclosure crisis.
It's not hard to see why. While banks and loan servicers have promised for almost three years to better address rising stresses on their home loan borrowers, foreclosures and defaults still haven't seriously slowed.
The eight-county Sacramento region has counted more than 42,000 foreclosures since the start of 2007. Many area neighborhoods are scarred by vacant repos and dead lawns that pull down property values of other homeowners. Statewide, the foreclosure tally has passed 410,000, and it's believed thousands more are inevitable.
As a result, it's not just borrowers griping about the inability of banks to contain the crisis. Elected officials, besieged by complaints from constituents, are increasingly applying pressure as well.
This month, the League of California Cities, convening in San Jose, will consider a resolution urging 480 cities to yank deposits from banks that "fail to cooperate with foreclosure prevention efforts."
"If you count up the money cities have in banks, that's an amazing amount of power," said Los Angeles City Council member Richard Alarcon, a former state lawmaker. "We have never tried to seize it. I'm trying to seize it. If you're not a good player on the foreclosure front, we're not going to put our money in your bank."
Last week, the Elk Grove City Council voted 4-0 to back the notion and lobby for it at this month's convention. The city of 141,000, one of the fastest growing in California during the housing boom, in the bust became an epicenter of defaults and foreclosures.
"It's time. It's past due. We should have done this some time ago," said Vice Mayor Sophia Scherman, who lives next to a foreclosed home. "It's going to send a very strong message to these institutions."
Others aren't so sure. Tony Cherin, professor of finance at San Diego State University, said, "I can understand the frustration."
But he said cities would have fewer choices for investing because of bank failures and mergers during the meltdown. He said cities' options "may be limited even though they would like to divest themselves."
Two weeks ago, U.S. Rep. Doris Matsui, D-Sacramento, and more than a dozen other California House members applied their own pressure. They wrote Shaun Donovan, secretary of the U.S. Housing and Urban Development Department, urging him to turn up the heat on mortgage lenders to modify more loans. Matsui and others wrote that homeowners who use HUD-approved counselors to contact loan servicers are often "rebuffed or told they couldn't be helped until they were behind on their payments."
James Seeley, a machine shop supervisor at the University of California, Davis, just wants a modified mortgage that he and his wife, Sandi, can better afford.
It's a common quest in this economy. Seeley's wages are being cut. His house in Natomas has lost almost half its value. And he owes more than it's worth, even with a $125,000 down payment in 2006.
"We want to get payments down to 31 percent of our income," said Seeley.
In Curtis Park, Hilary Egan is trying to do the same. Her contractor husband has seen a considerable drop in business. She wants a modification before their interest-only loan resets next year to higher payments.
The Seeleys and Egans, both current with their mortgages, have something else in common: Both their modification requests were denied.
Their rejections have aligned them with a broad and growing swath of public opinion: sore that a U.S. banking industry that has received billions of dollars in taxpayer support in the past year hasn't reciprocated on their behalf.
"I don't know a single person who has benefited from the money that was given to lenders," said Egan.
Added Seeley, "The taxpayers are the largest investor in these companies, so I would think they would be taking care of us first."
Banks and financial institutions aren't usually adored even in best of times. But after absorbing much blame for exuberant lending that created the housing bubble, they are increasingly absorbing a backlash for their response to the subsequent foreclosure crisis.
It's not hard to see why. While banks and loan servicers have promised for almost three years to better address rising stresses on their home loan borrowers, foreclosures and defaults still haven't seriously slowed.
The eight-county Sacramento region has counted more than 42,000 foreclosures since the start of 2007. Many area neighborhoods are scarred by vacant repos and dead lawns that pull down property values of other homeowners. Statewide, the foreclosure tally has passed 410,000, and it's believed thousands more are inevitable.
As a result, it's not just borrowers griping about the inability of banks to contain the crisis. Elected officials, besieged by complaints from constituents, are increasingly applying pressure as well.
This month, the League of California Cities, convening in San Jose, will consider a resolution urging 480 cities to yank deposits from banks that "fail to cooperate with foreclosure prevention efforts."
"If you count up the money cities have in banks, that's an amazing amount of power," said Los Angeles City Council member Richard Alarcon, a former state lawmaker. "We have never tried to seize it. I'm trying to seize it. If you're not a good player on the foreclosure front, we're not going to put our money in your bank."
Last week, the Elk Grove City Council voted 4-0 to back the notion and lobby for it at this month's convention. The city of 141,000, one of the fastest growing in California during the housing boom, in the bust became an epicenter of defaults and foreclosures.
"It's time. It's past due. We should have done this some time ago," said Vice Mayor Sophia Scherman, who lives next to a foreclosed home. "It's going to send a very strong message to these institutions."
Others aren't so sure. Tony Cherin, professor of finance at San Diego State University, said, "I can understand the frustration."
But he said cities would have fewer choices for investing because of bank failures and mergers during the meltdown. He said cities' options "may be limited even though they would like to divest themselves."
Two weeks ago, U.S. Rep. Doris Matsui, D-Sacramento, and more than a dozen other California House members applied their own pressure. They wrote Shaun Donovan, secretary of the U.S. Housing and Urban Development Department, urging him to turn up the heat on mortgage lenders to modify more loans. Matsui and others wrote that homeowners who use HUD-approved counselors to contact loan servicers are often "rebuffed or told they couldn't be helped until they were behind on their payments."
California bill would extend tax credit on new homes
California bill would extend tax credit on new homes
A popular state tax credit of up to $10,000 that helped sell hundreds of new houses throughout the Sacramento region earlier this year appears to be coming back.
A plan to extend the state tax credit to another 4,285 buyers of new, unoccupied homes in California – possibly as many as 500 in the capital area – is expected to receive a vote in the Legislature by Friday's end of the session.
The buyer tax credit began March 1 and unexpectedly sold out by July 2 as many first-time California buyers combined the state credit with an $8,000 federal tax credit.
Statewide, Roseville ranked eighth among cities where new house buyers received the state credit. Sacramento ranked ninth, the state Franchise Tax Board reported.
"It was used very extensively," said Dennis Rogers, a government affairs executive with the Roseville-based North State Building Industry Association. He and others in Sacramento's struggling building industry said the credit helped prod buyers off the fence before it ended in July.
"We've definitely seen a lot of interest from homebuyers coming into the sales environment because of the program," said Pulte Homes spokeswoman Jacque Petroulakis. Pulte is the capital region's largest home builder.
The original tax credit also helped area builders clear an excess inventory of homes finished or nearly finished, but not yet sold.
Builders and buyers now in the sales process hope to see the bill pass the Legislature this week and be signed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
That's considered likely by many close to the legislation. The governor was a force behind the original tax credit, calling it a job generator for the construction industry and larger California economy.
Statewide, 10,659 California buyers got the homebuyer credits, which allowed tax breaks of up to $3,333 per year for three years, the Franchise Tax Board reported Aug. 31. Buyers are expected to be notified by Friday about the amount of credit allocated or denied.
The tax agency stopped taking applications July 2, assuming that it had reached the program's $100 million limit. Original expectations were that most people could claim the entire $10,000. Then a newer FTB sample of taxpayers approved for the credit based on "their 2007 income tax liabilities, and incorporating 2009 tax law changes" showed most people won't owe enough state taxes to claim an entire $10,000 credit over three years.
"It's estimated that most people will get about $7,000," said FTB spokeswoman Brenda Voet. She said those who qualify for the entire $10,000 will still receive it.
The new FTB liability estimates means an estimated $30 million in credits could go unclaimed under provisions of the original tax credit bill passed in February.
Assembly Bill 765, by Assemblywoman Anna Caballero, D-Salinas, reauthorizes the tax credit under the new estimates. New credits would be available upon the bill's signing and run through March 1, 2010. Builders must apply on behalf of buyers within one week of closing escrow.
The new bill, however, won't help capital-area buyers who closed escrow after the FTB's July 2 deadline. They'll be ineligible for the tax break because they closed escrow during a time when the law, if it passes, was not in effect.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Sacarmento-area man called the housing crash
Sacramento-area man called the housing crash
Hats are off today to Sacramento's Michael Choe, 43, a supervising engineer with the state Department of Toxic Substances Control. This week he earned his second appearance in Time magazine since 2005 – for making good calls in this crazed real estate market.
Choe sold high in 2004.
He rented for four years.
He bought low in 2008.
As the housing crash continues, Choe's is the ultimate wish-we-had-done-that tale.
In September 2004, as the market soared (the median price was 25.6 percent higher than the same time a year earlier in Sacramento County) Choe sold his house in Natomas.
"The (price) acceleration was increasing and that really scared me," he said this week. "I thought this is something that is going to end badly."
He sold the house he had bought in 2001 for $192,500 – for $369,00. He warned others he knew to do the same. He commented on blog sites then springing up that foresaw a massive housing bubble.
"There were very few people who did something about it," he said. "I put my money where my mouth was. I sold the home, and I took a risk by selling it. People were telling me I was crazy, that it would double in two or three years. I said, 'It's going to come back to 2000 levels soon.' "
Time magazine found Choe on the blog sites and profiled him in June 2005 (the median sales price in Sacramento County was then 22 percent higher than the same time a year earlier). The magazine's cover that week showed a cartoon man hugging his house and the title: "Home $weet Home, Why we're going gaga over real estate."
Time noted that Choe had sold and moved into a rental. It asked: "Is he serious? Choose to rent when owning seems a sure way to riches?"
The rest is history. Choe, his wife and two sons rented in El Dorado Hills as what scared him out of Natomas in 2004 came to pass. Then, a year ago, he jumped back in. Choe paid $281,000 for a bank repo in Sacramento that sold in July 2006 for $437,500.
He was too early, he concedes. Said Choe, "I'm still pessimistic about the housing market. I told my family we're buying now, but I know it's going down further. I'm going to lose money on this deal. It has gone down. But I made enough money on the sale of my original house that I can absorb any more losses."
The real story was that his son was ready to start school. Otherwise he would have waited two more years to buy.
"I wanted to get him in a good school district. I wanted to be stable in that way."
This week Time magazine revisited with Choe, recalling his 2004 decision and his 2005 interview. "Exceedingly smart move," said the magazine.
Time noted his decision to buy, and asked, "Is this smart move No. 2? In other words: Is it really time to buy?"
What does Choe think now?
"My prediction," he said, "is when it hits bottom it will stay flat. I would say a good five to 10 years. I've been looking at Japan, too. They stayed flat more than 10 years. There's no way that things are going to bounce right back. This was, in my opinion, a once-in-a-lifetime experience."
That's Choe's call. Anyone can be wrong or right. But the state engineer has been right so far. (He also yanked his money out of the stock market with the Dow at 13,000). That gives him satisfaction. For posterity, Choe is on the record in a national magazine as having called it correctly.
"I can tell my kids that your dad predicted the housing crash and nobody believed him at that time," he said. "They believed I was a lunatic. It turned out I did make the right call."
Interest rates ease again
News is improving on the interest-rate front. Rates for benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are headed back toward 5 percent as inflation remains in check, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. The federal mortgage giant said interest rates nationally averaged 5.08 percent this week, down from 5.14 percent last week.
The new average is the lowest since the week of May 28, when U.S. rates averaged 4.91 percent. Mortgages rates have remained below 5 percent for 12 weeks this year, mostly in March, April and May.
Hats are off today to Sacramento's Michael Choe, 43, a supervising engineer with the state Department of Toxic Substances Control. This week he earned his second appearance in Time magazine since 2005 – for making good calls in this crazed real estate market.
Choe sold high in 2004.
He rented for four years.
He bought low in 2008.
As the housing crash continues, Choe's is the ultimate wish-we-had-done-that tale.
In September 2004, as the market soared (the median price was 25.6 percent higher than the same time a year earlier in Sacramento County) Choe sold his house in Natomas.
"The (price) acceleration was increasing and that really scared me," he said this week. "I thought this is something that is going to end badly."
He sold the house he had bought in 2001 for $192,500 – for $369,00. He warned others he knew to do the same. He commented on blog sites then springing up that foresaw a massive housing bubble.
"There were very few people who did something about it," he said. "I put my money where my mouth was. I sold the home, and I took a risk by selling it. People were telling me I was crazy, that it would double in two or three years. I said, 'It's going to come back to 2000 levels soon.' "
Time magazine found Choe on the blog sites and profiled him in June 2005 (the median sales price in Sacramento County was then 22 percent higher than the same time a year earlier). The magazine's cover that week showed a cartoon man hugging his house and the title: "Home $weet Home, Why we're going gaga over real estate."
Time noted that Choe had sold and moved into a rental. It asked: "Is he serious? Choose to rent when owning seems a sure way to riches?"
The rest is history. Choe, his wife and two sons rented in El Dorado Hills as what scared him out of Natomas in 2004 came to pass. Then, a year ago, he jumped back in. Choe paid $281,000 for a bank repo in Sacramento that sold in July 2006 for $437,500.
He was too early, he concedes. Said Choe, "I'm still pessimistic about the housing market. I told my family we're buying now, but I know it's going down further. I'm going to lose money on this deal. It has gone down. But I made enough money on the sale of my original house that I can absorb any more losses."
The real story was that his son was ready to start school. Otherwise he would have waited two more years to buy.
"I wanted to get him in a good school district. I wanted to be stable in that way."
This week Time magazine revisited with Choe, recalling his 2004 decision and his 2005 interview. "Exceedingly smart move," said the magazine.
Time noted his decision to buy, and asked, "Is this smart move No. 2? In other words: Is it really time to buy?"
What does Choe think now?
"My prediction," he said, "is when it hits bottom it will stay flat. I would say a good five to 10 years. I've been looking at Japan, too. They stayed flat more than 10 years. There's no way that things are going to bounce right back. This was, in my opinion, a once-in-a-lifetime experience."
That's Choe's call. Anyone can be wrong or right. But the state engineer has been right so far. (He also yanked his money out of the stock market with the Dow at 13,000). That gives him satisfaction. For posterity, Choe is on the record in a national magazine as having called it correctly.
"I can tell my kids that your dad predicted the housing crash and nobody believed him at that time," he said. "They believed I was a lunatic. It turned out I did make the right call."
Interest rates ease again
News is improving on the interest-rate front. Rates for benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are headed back toward 5 percent as inflation remains in check, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. The federal mortgage giant said interest rates nationally averaged 5.08 percent this week, down from 5.14 percent last week.
The new average is the lowest since the week of May 28, when U.S. rates averaged 4.91 percent. Mortgages rates have remained below 5 percent for 12 weeks this year, mostly in March, April and May.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Deeper Sacramento housing Crisis is forecast
Deeper Sacramento housing Crisis is forecast
A major credit reporting company predicts mortgage delinquency rates will continue rising in the Sacramento area – with 12 percent of homeowners falling at least two months behind on their payments by year's end.
That's nearly twice the national projection and a dramatic jump from just two years ago, when less than 2 percent percent of area homeowners' notes were delinquent.
"California faces some challenges, and that's reflected in the statistics," said Ezra Becker, director of consulting and strategy at TransUnion, one of the nation's three large credit reporting agencies.
"There are serious delinquency rates in California, and it's not out of the woods by the end of the year," Becker added. He predicted the delinquency rates in California would begin falling in 2010.
TransUnion, based in Chicago, analyzed trends in the mortgage industry for the second quarter and offered year-end projections for the Sacramento market and the state.
Today, Sacramento's 60-day mortgage loan delinquency rate – the percentage of homeowners at least 60 days behind on their mortgage payments – stands at 9.62 percent, just below the state's rate of 9.7 percent, according to Trans Union.
The national rate, at 5.81 percent, is projected to rise to 6.93 percent by the end of the year.
California trails just Arizona, Florida and Nevada, which has the highest delinquency rate at nearly 14 percent. Delinquency rates are a key indicator because the 60-day threshold is traditionally seen as a step toward foreclosure.
In markets where home values have dropped most sharply, delinquency and foreclosure rates are highest. By that measure, the capital remains in trouble. In June, more than half of Sacramento-area households owed more on their homes than they were worth, First American CoreLogic reported last week.
"As long as that persists, we'll see delinquencies and foreclosures continue," said Suzanne O'Keefe, an economics professor at California State University, Sacramento. "Until the housing market turns around, there's not much hope for those rates to reverse."
By the end of the year, TransUnion predicts, 12.2 percent of Sacramento-area homeowners and more than 14 percent of homeowners statewide will be at least two months behind on their house payments.
Double-digit percentage unemployment and unpaid furlough days are increasingly catching up with homeowners who have "safe" fixed-rate loans, rather than the subprime loans that initially sparked the housing crisis.
Mike Himes, director of NeighborWorks Homeownership Center in Sacramento, which counsels struggling and first-time homeowners, said his office is seeing more clients facing growing debt and making choices between house payments and other expenses. His clientele includes a growing number of state workers whose paychecks have been pared by unpaid furloughs.
"There's a lot of money borrowed to stay in the house and keep up with living expenses," Himes said. "This is becoming more and more of a problem."
Despite the current darkness, Becker of TransUnion predicted the clouds could lift in 2010. And when they do, the sun will shine more brightly on the Golden State than the rest of the nation. TransUnion predicts that the delinquency rate will fall three times faster than in the nation as a whole.
"We anticipate the recovery will be more robust and last longer" than in other regions of the country, he said.
A major credit reporting company predicts mortgage delinquency rates will continue rising in the Sacramento area – with 12 percent of homeowners falling at least two months behind on their payments by year's end.
That's nearly twice the national projection and a dramatic jump from just two years ago, when less than 2 percent percent of area homeowners' notes were delinquent.
"California faces some challenges, and that's reflected in the statistics," said Ezra Becker, director of consulting and strategy at TransUnion, one of the nation's three large credit reporting agencies.
"There are serious delinquency rates in California, and it's not out of the woods by the end of the year," Becker added. He predicted the delinquency rates in California would begin falling in 2010.
TransUnion, based in Chicago, analyzed trends in the mortgage industry for the second quarter and offered year-end projections for the Sacramento market and the state.
Today, Sacramento's 60-day mortgage loan delinquency rate – the percentage of homeowners at least 60 days behind on their mortgage payments – stands at 9.62 percent, just below the state's rate of 9.7 percent, according to Trans Union.
The national rate, at 5.81 percent, is projected to rise to 6.93 percent by the end of the year.
California trails just Arizona, Florida and Nevada, which has the highest delinquency rate at nearly 14 percent. Delinquency rates are a key indicator because the 60-day threshold is traditionally seen as a step toward foreclosure.
In markets where home values have dropped most sharply, delinquency and foreclosure rates are highest. By that measure, the capital remains in trouble. In June, more than half of Sacramento-area households owed more on their homes than they were worth, First American CoreLogic reported last week.
"As long as that persists, we'll see delinquencies and foreclosures continue," said Suzanne O'Keefe, an economics professor at California State University, Sacramento. "Until the housing market turns around, there's not much hope for those rates to reverse."
By the end of the year, TransUnion predicts, 12.2 percent of Sacramento-area homeowners and more than 14 percent of homeowners statewide will be at least two months behind on their house payments.
Double-digit percentage unemployment and unpaid furlough days are increasingly catching up with homeowners who have "safe" fixed-rate loans, rather than the subprime loans that initially sparked the housing crisis.
Mike Himes, director of NeighborWorks Homeownership Center in Sacramento, which counsels struggling and first-time homeowners, said his office is seeing more clients facing growing debt and making choices between house payments and other expenses. His clientele includes a growing number of state workers whose paychecks have been pared by unpaid furloughs.
"There's a lot of money borrowed to stay in the house and keep up with living expenses," Himes said. "This is becoming more and more of a problem."
Despite the current darkness, Becker of TransUnion predicted the clouds could lift in 2010. And when they do, the sun will shine more brightly on the Golden State than the rest of the nation. TransUnion predicts that the delinquency rate will fall three times faster than in the nation as a whole.
"We anticipate the recovery will be more robust and last longer" than in other regions of the country, he said.
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